DOES 10% OF 200 MILLION REALLY EQUAL 20 MILLION?

Scanning the headlines this morning we noticed what is actually quite an outrageous claim about Twitter. One of the teasers for an article about the death of Amy Winehouse (RIP and all, but what about the famine in Somalia?!) said that within minutes of her demise 20 million people were discussing it on Twitter. Upon further investigation, here’s a call-out in the article that provides further explanation:

You don’t have to be a statistician to see the errors in logic here. Leaving aside the questions of which hashtags they counted as part of the discussion, how many tweets might have been part of the discussion but not used one of those hashtags, and whether a retweet really counts as active ‘discussion’, anyone on Twitter knows that a minute percentage of users make up the vast majority of the traffic. While it may be true that 20 million tweets included the hashtags that this publication (or its source) considered having to do with Ms. Winehouse’s death, it does not follow that each of those tweets came from a unique user. Not only doesn’t it follow, it defies belief.

OKAY MATH NERDS, SO WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL?

This isn’t about mathematical purism – it’s about the misleading effect of the call-out above. Unless you stop and think about it, the takeaway is a grossly exaggerated sense of the importance of Twitter.

And the problem doesn’t exist only in tabloids whose job is it to sensationalize. We’re seeing a general lack of context and even accuracy in the numbers that get reported on social media. And don’t get us started on the debate over which are the “right” metrics to be looking at: Cost per Click? Viral Coefficients? Engagement? (however it is that you measure that…) There’s a general morass of omissions, errors and unanswered questions that makes it difficult for marketers to figure who is using social media for what, how much of it they’re doing, and what that might mean to an organization’s marketing strategies and tactics.

CASE IN POINT: CLICK THROUGH RATES

“Mobile Ad Optimizer” Smaato publishes regular updates on all manner of mobile metrics, numbers that are picked up and reported in trade verticals and mainstream business press. We recently started looking at their updates in an effort to figure out what click through rates (CTR) look like on mobile devices. Here’s an example of their reporting:

It’s a good chart and in this case our questions aren’t about the math, but about the context. Report after report measures, tracks and compares the relative CTR on different OS’s by plotting their distance from an average measure of 100, but what exactly does this tell marketers about the usefulness of mobile advertising?

Not much.

It turns out that, at least according to AdMob, the average CTR for a mobile campaign varies between .5% and 1%. Presumably those numbers include accidental clicks (which in our case make up 100% of the clicks we’ve made so far on mobile device ads), which leads us to think that maybe if Smaato chose 0 as their average rather than 100 they would provide a more realistic picture of what’s actually happening with mobile ad clicks? We’re not accusing Smaato of deliberately misleading, but why not publish actual CTR’s in addition to the relative figures?

WE’RE NOT HATERS, WE JUST WANT THE TRUTH

We’re not technology or social media naysayers. We tweet, we’re on Quora and we love KISSmetrics as much as the next gal or guy. But we’re asked to help our clients put limited marketing resources to maximum effect, and we’re not willing to accept some of the “facts” we see published without a little grain of salt and a whole lot more rigor.

Users check-in at restaurants, parks, gas stations, malls, churches, stores, hair salons, hotels, gyms, and myriad other locations — even the Oval Office.   Check-in with sufficient regularity and soon you, dear reader, might be awarded the coveted designation “Mayor,” garnering the envy and adulation of your peers and coveted perks like a buck off of a Frappuccino or a designated parking space at the mall!  Some antediluvian fogies (and aging brand-builders) may view all this as a bit of a Faustian trade off by providing a continuous APB of one’s current location for would-be stalkers, muggers and burglars in exchange for dubious recognition and trifles of nugatory value.  Far be it from BrandCultureTalk, however, to question the wisdom of 5 million+ happy Foursquare users!  The crowd has spoken!

This frenzy of activity has not escaped the attention of tens of thousands of businesses and brands that have collaborated thus far with Foursquare.  With this location-based service (and other similar services such as Gowalla and SCVNGR), companies are beginning to think in new ways to assure an overall experience that reinforces the brand.  Across print, online, digital, mobile, and even social media as a platform, brands have formidable tools to maintain the consistency and delivery of their brand through language, images, logos, visual vocabulary and carefully crafted brand experience.  But translating the essence of the brand to a check-in application?  Why that’s a bit trickier indeed.

Bravo TV seems to have  successfully used Foursquare to engage its fans in a new way.   Uber-fans — just like us — who would never dream of missing an episode of the The Real Housewives of New Jersey, Atlanta or New York City or any of the other spectacular cities among the network’s constellation of housewife excellence can now take check in at the very same restaurants, bars, and other places of interest featured on the shows, and in so doing, win badges, physical prizes and deals.  In fact, Bravo has selected more than 500 locations around the United States for Foursquare deals, badges, and irresistible treats. When Foursquare users follow Bravo TV on the site, they also receive tips and suggestions from the network’s celebrities for other lifestyle brands like The Standard Hotel, Morton’s Steakhouse, Forever 21, The Forum Shops at Caesar’s.  Viewers gain a new understanding and appreciation of their favorite reality TV show through these interactive and social games, and even enjoy a bit of the glamorous lifestyle by sipping on the same “Skinny Girl Margaritas” and purchasing Milly Jungle Leaf Print Silk Dresses identical to those of the leading ladies!

Even with additional partnerships with People Magazine (“People is pointing out the spots where celebrities like to dine, party, shop and sleep”) and The Huffington Post, Foursquare isn’t all glamor and glitz. Foursquare and brands like Zagat share obvious natural affinities.  Zagat followers “can benefit from official Zagat tips, show they love food by unlocking the new foodie badge and have opportunities to be featured on Zagat.com with our new ‘Meet the Mayor’” series.” And for those inclined to even more highbrow pursuits, The History Channel provides hints for the closest historic locations near to your mobile location as well as badges for visiting specific sites.
Where all this ends up, only the most confident of soothsayers would speculate. But brands would be well-advised to put some serious thought into their selection of Foursquare partners — and be prepared to cut them free if the overall impact of the experience dilutes rather than advances brand value.  That said, Foursquare is adding more than 25,000 new users and has over 2,000,000 check-ins a day, making the confluence of brand and user across the Foursquare touchpoint more and more common every day.  So whether you’re a person or a brand (or both), what are you waiting for?  The time has come for you to become more aware of the incredible things — and brands — around you.

The predilections of this subset of Japanese salarymen aside (let alone what would-be Delaware Senator Christine O’Donnell might think), technology and social media have actually brought the rest of us closer together through myriad new ways to exchange information and ideas, forge common ground and really, actually connect with each other out in cyberspace.

Websites, webcasts, webinars and wikis. Podcasts and portals. YouTube, LinkedIn and Skype. Blogs, vlogs, VOIP and video conferencing. Flickr, Facebook, FaceTime. Twitter (which itself modestly notes, “is without a doubt the best way to share and discover what is happening right now”), Brizzly and Plinky too. And this is just the beginning of a tiny sliver of what’s out there, of course.  The explosion of social media platforms and other meaningfully interactive Internet environments has created unprecedented ways for people and the organizations they form to communicate, collaborate, share and connect today. The human experience lost by first generation “talking at you” web platforms – modeled more on traditional broadcast and mass media than on an understanding of how to harness the power of interactive media – is quickly being redefined with new and dynamic social media platforms that lead the way in rehumanizing the online experience.

Still, the value of open dialogue, exchange and interaction offered through face-to-face, in-person interactions has never gone and will never go away. Why? Even with revolutionary advances, human communication and understanding still depend on immersion and context that often can’t be captured even by new social media, as fantastic as it may be.  Despite all the ingenuity and advances of virtual interaction, face-to-face communication and human-to-human connection remain essential for people and organizations to share information, bring ideas to life, forge common ground, inspire allegiance and deepen relationships among employees, partners and customers.

This may be the dying polemic of an old guy, but all the non-verbal communication – body language and facial expressions, from the arched eyebrow to the eye roll to the wink, as well as the tone and significance of raised pitch versus an ironic aside – can easily escape notice, let alone scrutiny in the virtual world. Because what we experience is sensory rather than strictly analytical, the consyntagmatic meaning of the most well-crafted communications can fall short, regardless of the emoticon appended to an email or text message.

New ways have emerged and evolved to create experiences that better educate, engage and immerse to influence the rational, emotional and self-expressive needs that guide human behavior. As technology advances, a range of multimedia alternatives create new approaches for delivering compelling communications that are both interactive and informative in live environments. A smart, well-crafted message delivered across live multimedia platforms creates opportunities not only to inform and engage, but also the chance to inspire.  An effective and efficient in-person communicative event that enables people to see, hear, touch and feel can be as crucial to organizational change and forging common purpose as an enterprise-wide technology transformation. And it’s not about pumping music, smoke machines and pyrotechnics (although they can have a role, too).

In the brave new world of social media and beyond, face-to-face communication and interaction will remain fundamental to connecting people, communicating goals, forging strategies, setting expectations, implementing organizational strategy and developing the shared purpose that undergirds long-term success.  Tony King noted in the Financial Times, “In this wonderful world of multimedia, no matter what twists or turns technology will take, one thing will remain self-evident, content is king.” This quote from 1993 is now 17 years old, but the premise remains true for both whizbang new social media and old school non-virtual (to wit, in person) interactions. Compelling content matters today more than ever to create interactions that engage, educate, excite, and yes, connect . . . even if only with your virtual girlfriend.

At BrandCulture Company, we have been seeing and are helping clients take advantage of a desire among consumers to shift their purchasing decisions back to smaller, local businesses. During the 80’s and 90’s, the Coca-Cola Company grew immense global market share with its “Think Global, Act Local” philosophy, but found that it became increasingly disconnected from its local bottling partners and customers.  In the beginning of the last decade, Coca-Cola began to evolve its go-to-market strategy with a “Think Local, Act Local” philosophy.  Coca-Cola continues today with its local community through its “Live Positively” campaign and Virtual Community Center .

Today, ‘buy local’ campaigns have emerged in cities ranging from Santa Clarita, California to Boston, Massachusetts – localized efforts to tap into consumers’ sense of place and home.

The “Move Your Money” campaign, while emanating from a populist dissatisfaction with mega-banks’ influence, also taps into this sense of local community.  Interestingly, among “Move Your Money” targets is Bank of America, a company that has attempted its own localized community focus, with community message boards and support of community arts.

But walk into a Bank of America branch and finding a banker that can actually do something for you is another story.  Instead of a real community focus, Bank of America’s sophisticated technology infrastructure supports a network of faceless banking professionals interacting with customers, cutting off their credit while charging extraordinary services fees. Its no wonder the Bank of America Community Message Board in this blogger’s local branch is nearly empty.

“Move Your Money,” we will follow with interest your effort to use consumer choice to spark a redistribution of power from big banks to community institutions. But let’s not forget that while local presence is important, what matters to consumers above all else is that the products, businesses and financial institutions that they choose deliver what they promise.

See if you recognize this Ford spot:

Although this minor masterpiece created by JWT Team Detroit may not find a home on the Superbowl, it has run almost every where else.  CNN.  Desperate Housewives.  NFL and NBA games.  The Food Network.  House.  HG TV.  The World Series.  Stanford stunning USC out on the gridiron.  Ubiquitous saturation of the airwaves across eclectic genres, fourteen seconds at a time.

Our interest in the impact of this ad is more than passing.  Somewhat inexplicably, this fine performance features talent not heretofore known for acting, but that of a co-worker who happens to be one of BrandCulture’s greatest brand-builders of all time.  As part of a continuing advertising trend to feature “real people” instead of professional actors (see what Volkswagen did in the UK with the Tiguan), Ford concealed its intent while creating its “Drive One” campaign:  “In fact, these people didn’t know that it was Ford filming them, or that they would be used in commercials.”

What are the results of all of this verisimilitude?  Setting aside for a moment the issue of whether these spots moved any metal, they inarguably skyrocketed our co-worker’s own awareness.  While not yet as well known as Jared or Verizon’s “can you hear me now guy,” our young hero has achieved no small amount of fame as “the guy from the Ford commercial.”  The modern-day Los Angeles equivalent of the butcher, baker and candlestick maker stop him on the streets.  Peet’s baristas hail him from afar and craft custom beverages for him.  The fellow who brings sandwiches around our office building admitted he caught a glimpse of the ad while watching a basketball game he’d TiVoed and then went back to watch the spot.  Schoolchildren query him at playgrounds on how they too can appear on television by talking about a car gas cap, or, more accurately, lack thereof.

The Ad Contrarian recently opined that the problem with television advertising isn’t that it doesn’t work, but there are too many channels fracturing the audience.  This latest BrandCulture foray into a focus group of one reveals that if you maintain enough frequency and breadth with television advertising, you can still reach your intended audience (in this case the American motoring public) . . . and then some.  We also believe that television advertising still is a powerful tool to drive brand familiarity and awareness.  That said, we also believe brands can’t pretend to be something they’re not, no matter how high the advertising spend.  Hollow assertions can make beautiful ads — and beautiful castles in air — that ultimately undermine and destroy brand value.  When building a brand, begin with an idea, develop the creative and only then communicate and broadcast it.  And what’s the idea here?  Finding out what drivers actually value in their cars instead of stylized shots on winding country roads in crepuscular light?  This might just be simple enough to work.

We’re with 19th century retailer John Wanamaker and his insight, “I know that half of my advertising doesn’t work. The problem is, I don’t know which half.”  Heaven forfend that we fall prey to the logical fallacy common among advertising professionals and market researchers alike of conflating correlation with causation.  Still, we’d like to think that the exceptional talent resident at BrandCulture helped fuel at least part of that billion dollars in profit Ford earned last quarter, albeit adding an entirely new dimension to our more traditional consulting services.